Eurasian Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate

Preface

Acknowledgments

Contents

Contributors

John Richard Martin “Joonas” Derome (1947–2010): In Memoriam

List of Abbreviations

1 Introduction: Climate and Land-Cover Changes in the Arctic

1.1 The Role of Northern Eurasia in the Global Climate Change

1.2 Implications of the Observed Changes

1.3 Regional Contribution to the Global Carbon Cycle

1.4 The NASA LCLUC Program's Contribution to the International Polar Year

References

2 Recent Changes in Arctic Vegetation: Satellite Observations and Simulation Model Predictions

2.1 Introduction

2.2 An Overview of Recent Changes in Arctic Vegetation Productivity

2.3 Tundra Ecosystems

2.3.1 Relationships Among Sea Ice, Land Surface Temperature and Productivity

2.3.2 Variability of Tundra Productivity Within Bioclimatic Subzones: Focus on the Yamal Peninsula

2.4 Boreal Forest Ecosystems

2.4.1 Tree Rings as an Integrative Measure of Growth

2.4.2 Correlation Between Satellite Vegetation Indices and Tree Rings

2.5 Simulation Model Projections of Arctic Vegetation Change

2.5.1 Changes in Distribution of Vegetation Types (BIOME4)

2.5.2 Tundra Vegetation Dynamics (ArcVeg)

2.5.3 Tree-Line Dynamics (TreeMig)

2.6 Conclusions

References

3 High-Latitude Forest Cover Loss in Northern Eurasia, 2000--2005

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Boreal Forest Biome Boundaries and Sub-regions

3.3 Data and Methods

3.3.1 The Biome-Wide Forest Cover Loss Analysis Algorithm

3.3.2 MODIS-Based Forest Cover Loss Hotspot Mapping

3.3.3 Landsat Stratified Sampling Block Analysis

3.4 Results and Discussion

3.4.1 Forest Cover and Forest Cover Loss Area Estimates

3.4.2 Forest Cover Loss Inter-annual Trends

3.4.3 Burned Forest Area Estimation

3.4.4 Logging Monitoring

3.5 Conclusions

References

4 Characterization and Monitoring of Tundra-Taiga Transition Zone with Multi-sensor Satellite Data

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Study Area and Data

4.2.1 Study Site

4.2.2 Remote Sensing Data

4.2.3 Map and Field Observations

4.3 Methods

4.3.1 Landsat Image Classification and Change Detection

4.3.2 Signatures Across the Taiga-Tundra Transition Zone

4.3.3 Taiga-Tundra Transition Area Mapping from Landsat ETM+

4.3.4 Mapping of the Transition Zone Using Other Satellite Data

4.3.4.1 RADARSAT Data

4.3.4.2 MISR and MODIS Data

4.4 Spatial Patterns of the Transition Zone

4.5 Results

4.5.1 Landsat Image Classification and Change Detection

4.5.2 Spectral Signatures Across the Transition Zone

4.5.3 Transition Zone Mapping from Remote Sensing Data

4.6 Conclusions

References

5 Vegetation Cover in the Eurasian Arctic: Distribution, Monitoring, and Role in Carbon Cycling

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Representation of Vegetation Cover in Coarse Resolution Maps

5.2.1 Comparison of Categorical Maps

5.2.2 Vegetation Continuous Field Maps

5.2.3 Comparison of Tree Cover Representation on Coarse Resolution Maps

5.3 Comparison of Coarse Resolution Maps with Landsat-Based Land Cover

5.3.1 Komi Site

5.3.2 St. Petersburg Site

5.4 Effects of Vegetation on Carbon Stores in Terrestrial Ecosystems of Arctic Eurasia: Major Controlling Factors and Sources of Uncertainty

5.5 Significance of the Current Uncertainty in Vegetation Cover for Estimating Carbon Stores, Sources, and Sinks in Terrestrial Ecosystems

5.6 Summary and Conclusions

References

6 The Effects of Land Cover and Land Use Change on the Contemporary Carbon Balance of the Arctic and Boreal Terrestrial Ecosystems of Northern Eurasia

6.1 Introduction

6.1.1 Scope and Objectives of the Analysis

6.2 Methods

6.2.1 Overview

6.2.2 The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model

6.2.3 Driving Data Sets

6.2.4 Simulation Framework

6.2.5 Data Analysis

6.3 Results

6.3.1 General Trends

6.3.2 Non-LCLUC Effects

6.3.3 LCLUC Effects

6.3.4 Landscape Analysis

6.4 Discussion

6.4.1 The High-Latitude Terrestrial Sink

6.4.2 Saturation of the Sink in Northern Eurasia Ecosystems

6.4.3 Mechanisms Leading to the Shift in C Balance

6.5 Conclusions

References

7 Interactions Between Land Cover/Use Change and Hydrology

7.1 The Water Cycle of Northern Eurasia

7.2 Hydrological Changes

7.2.1 River Runoff

7.2.2 Precipitation

7.2.3 Snow Cover

7.2.4 Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground

7.2.5 Lakes and Wetlands

7.2.6 Glaciers

7.3 Links to Carbon Cycle

7.3.1 Lakes, Permafrost, and Methane

7.3.2 Frozen Soil and DOC Export

7.3.3 Peatlands, Water Table, and Greenhouse Gases

7.4 Monitoring of the Water Cycle in the Context of LCLUC

7.4.1 Ground Observational Networks

7.4.2 Remote Sensing Monitoring of Water Cycle

7.4.2.1 Snow Water Equivalent

7.4.2.2 Snow Cover Extent

7.4.2.3 Surface Water Extent

7.4.2.4 Surface and Sub-surface Water Storage

7.4.2.5 Glaciers and Soil Freeze/Thaw

7.4.3 Hydrologic Monitoring and the Carbon Cycle

7.4.4 A Strategy for Improving Hydrological Change Detection

7.5 Conclusions

References

8 Impacts of Arctic Climate and Land Use Changeson Reindeer Pastoralism: Indigenous Knowledge and Remote Sensing

8.1 Introduction

8.1.1 Reindeer Pastoralism and Arctic Changes

8.1.2 Reindeer Pastoralism Across the Arctic -- Background and Challenges

8.1.3 Reindeer, Climate Change and Development

8.1.4 Socioeconomic, Political and Other Pressures

8.2 IPY EALÁT Project: “Reindeer Pastoralism in a Changing Climate”

8.2.1 EALÁT Overview

8.2.2 EALÁT Goals

8.2.3 EALÁT Study Sites

8.3 EALT Studies

8.3.1 EALÁT Results from Early Studies: SAR Studies for Pasture Quality

8.3.2 EALÁT On-Going Studies

8.3.2.1 Indigenous Linguistics Studies of Reindeer Herding Language

8.3.2.2 Indigenous and Scientific Snow Studies

8.3.2.3 Indigenous and Scientific Studies of Pasture Icing or ''Lock-Out''

8.3.2.4 Indigenous and Remote Sensing/GIS Pasture Studies

8.4 EALÁT Monitoring and Information Integration System – Adaptation and Planning for the Future

8.5 Reindeer Pastoralism and the Future: UArctic International Institute for Reindeer Husbandry

References

9 Cumulative Effects of Rapid Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia

9.1 Introduction

9.1.1 Impending Changes to the Yamal Peninsula

9.1.2 Description of the Yamal

9.2 Study Goals and Approach

9.2.1 Information from Previous Studies

9.2.1.1 ECI Baseline Studies

9.2.1.2 ENSINOR Project

9.2.2 Field Research

9.2.3 Modeling Studies

9.3 Gas Development

9.3.1 Overview

9.3.2 Land-Cover and Land-Cover Changes Within the Bovanenkovo Gas Field

9.3.3 Geological Factors Contributing to Landscape Sensitivity

9.3.3.1 Sand Deposits

9.3.3.2 Massive Ground Ice and Landslides

9.4 Reindeer Herding

9.5 Climate-Vegetation Relationships

9.5.1 Spatial Distribution of Vegetation Productivity (NDVI)

9.5.2 Temporal Changes in Sea-Ice Concentration, Land-Surface Temperatures, and NDVI

9.6 Cumulative Effects

9.7 Conclusions

References

10 Interactions of Arctic Aerosols with Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes in Northern Eurasia and their Role in the Arctic Climate System

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Sources of Arctic Aerosols in Northern Eurasia and Their Dynamics

10.3 Characteristics of Arctic Aerosols, Their Variability and Linkages with Northern Eurasia

10.3.1 Observed Long-Term Changes in Concentrations and Composition of Arctic Aerosols

10.3.2 Seasonal Cycle and Trends in Aerosol Optical Depth

10.4 Climate Forcings of Arctic Aerosols and Feedbacks

10.4.1 Direct Radiative Forcing of Arctic Aerosols

10.4.2 Arctic Aerosols and Surface Albedo Interactions

10.4.3 Indirect Radiative Effects of Arctic Aerosols

10.4.4 Impacts of Aerosols on the Arctic System

10.5 Conclusions

References

11 Interaction Between Environmental Pollutionand Land-Cover/Land-Use Change in Arctic Areas

11.1 Introduction

11.2 Sources of Pollution and the Effects of Pollution

11.2.1 Acidifying Compounds

11.2.1.1 Sources

11.2.1.2 Effects

11.2.2 Heavy Metals

11.2.2.1 Sources of Pollution

11.2.2.2 Effects

11.2.3 Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)

11.2.3.1 Sources of Pollution

11.2.3.2 Effects

11.2.4 Oil and Gas Exploration and Extraction

11.2.4.1 Sources

11.2.4.2 Effects

11.2.5 Fires

11.3 Anthropogenic Pollution and Climate Change

11.3.1 Interactions Among Environmental Pollution, Climate Change, and Land-Cover/Land-Use Change

11.3.2 Global Warming May Aggravate the Effects of Pollutants, and Air Pollutants May Amplify Climatic Stress

11.3.3 Effect of Climate Change on Contaminant Pathways

11.3.4 Changes in Arctic Land Use Resulting from the Interaction Between Environmental Pollution and Climate Change

11.4 Conclusions

References

12 Summary and Outstanding Scientific Challenges for Land-Cover and Land-Use Research in the Arctic Region

12.1 Introduction

12.2 Modeling and Analysis of Forest-Cover Changes

12.3 Prospects for Using Satellite Data

12.4 Improved Land Surface Mapping for Characterizing the Carbon Budget

12.5 The Arctic: Carbon Source or Sink?

12.6 Characterizing the Water Cycle

12.7 Human Dimensions: Land Management

12.8 Landscape Effects Under Multiple Stresses

12.9 Atmospheric Effects

12.10 Polluting the Arctic

12.11 Conclusions

References

Index